A war with Iran would harm the Iranian people, strengthen the regime, and undermine the United States’s long and short term strategic interests. Here’s why:
Iranian People
The “shock and awe” tactic does not work- massive bombing in Iran will only cause damage to Iranian people, infrastructure, and cultural sites. This will not inspire fear and compliance, but rather further mistrust and vengefulness.
Dissidents
If a military strike occurred, leading dissidents would be forced to gather around Khamenei and Ahmadinejad’s regime to combat the foreign threat. Think pre 9/11- George Bush’s approval rating skyrocketed to nearly 90% after the attack whereas prior to 9/11 his approval rating was hovering at an average level. A similar event would occur in Iran if military options were used.
Anti-Americanism
An attack against Iran will be used as ammunition by the regime to fuel anti-American sentiment and to reestablish its claim that the hard-line regime is necessary to defend the Iranian people from outside aggressors.
Islamic World
A war in Iran would cement the United States into wars with Muslim countries across a 2,000+ mile span of terrain from the westernmost portion of Iraq to the easternmost portion of Afghanistan.
Military
Iran is geographically much larger than Iraq and Afghanistan. For any military measures to be successful, hundreds of thousands of troops would be required at the very least.
Public Support
With the already low approval ratings for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, rallying the public around yet another military quagmire will also be almost entirely impossible.
Costs
Early estimates for the cost of the war in Iraq were 80 billion. That war’s cost is currently approaching 700 billion, with an additional 350-700 billion dollars waiting in the form of health coverage for the wounded. A war with Iran could easily cost just as much or even more than the Iraqi war.
Fatalities
The most conservative estimates of civilian losses in Iraq are around 100,000 deaths, with the highest estimates approaching 1.3 million. A war in Iran could expect similar tactics to the Iraqi war, which will undoubtedly result in similar loss of life, further cementing anti-American sentiment for generations.
Non-violence
Non-violent movements for freedom have worked many times before (think Gandhi in India, Mandela in South Africa, and the student group Otpor! in Serbia). A similar movement is currently on the political forefront in Iran. Supporting this opposition rather than engaging in violent tactics could prove key in the future development of Iran.
Economic Recovery
The financial strain another war would put on the United States would likely prove unbearable. This would not only delay the recovery of the United States’ economy but also the recovery of world economic markets as a whole, in most of which the US still has an important role.
Facts
The IAEA has not established facts or concluded that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. Increased diplomatic efforts and concessions could lead to a full verification of these claims and put the world on a much different playing field.
Long Term Effects
A war with Iran could be seen as a short term solution, but the long term effects will prove much bigger losses than any perceived military gains.